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Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the perceived challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|